Population-Consumption Model v4

This and related pages describe and discuss Version 4 of the Population-consumption model. Version 4 introduces a new definition of "happiness" as the fraction of "inhabited environments" that are used by the world population. This ties population growth to consumption of ecological resources through the relationship between ecological footprint and happiness.

Using historical trends, future trajectories of population and consumption are projected and their implications explored.

The model is an empirically-derived theoretical construct that simplistically represents the dynamics involved in the most essential aspects of humanity's future: those affecting our survival. Like any hypothesis, it is subject to test.

Basic equations:

h = Ppop / Epop = F / (a_h * F + b_h)

Epop = a_e * Ppop² + b_e * Ppop + c_e for Epop < Emax

F * Ppop = a_m * Emax²+ b_m * Emax + c_m for Epop < Emax

L = F / (a_L * F + b_L )

where:

• Emax is the number of maximum environments in people-equivalents
• Epop is the number of inhabited environments in people-equivalents
• F is the global ecological footprint in Earth/person/year
• h is happiness
• L is life expectancy in years
• Ppop is the size of the human population in people
• The rest are constants

Additional information