Population-Consumption Model v4

Expected Case Technical Discussion

The Expected case scenario has population reaching a peak in 2022 and declining to zero by 2128.

The following graph illustrates the near-term trajectories of these variables, normalized to their values in 1970 (about the time that the total ecological footprint last enabled other species to fully provide renewable ecological resources and have enough left for their own survival).

  Expected Case  

As discussed for the Worst case, the peak may be caused by the limiting of growth imposed by depleted species, leading to a "locking" of total and inhabited environments. As with the Worst case, by this year (2014), the ratio of human population to environments (Pop/Epop) will approach the maximum happiness limit (0.82), while actual happiness remains lower, perhaps due to redistribution of resources among the population since 2008, as shown in Figure B for 2014.

Locked Expected

Figure A

2014 Distributions

Figure B

This results in more people having lower happiness, as seen in Figure C, which shows the cumulative fraction of population vs. happiness for 2014. In this year, 13.0% are in the lower half and 12.5% are above 0.9. Meanwhile, Note that the lowest average value of happiness (determined by taking 1 Earth and dividing it by the maximum population where maximum environments are at their highest point) is 0.36, and the lowest calculated historical value (around 10000 B.C.E.) is 0.42.


Happiness Distribution

Figure C


See also:

Population-Consumption v4 Main Page


Technical Description

Worst Case Technical Discussion

Best Case Technical Discussion


© Copyright 2014 Bradley Jarvis. All rights reserved.