Timelines Model (Version 5)

The following graph shows the relationships between global variables tracked in the Timelines model. Roll over to see the definitions as a function of phase.

Definitions of variables and terms used here and elsewhere are as follows. Variable names are capitalized, and references to other entries are italicized.

adjusted impact Amount of  Impact after it has been changed by human activity (typically Consumption)
Age Median age of a population, in years
Birth Rate Births per year as a fraction of the population
C Average Consumption per person in a group
Capacity Total amount of ecological resources available to, and used by, a group (see Rtotal)
Cap/p Capacity per person
C-low Simulation that reduces consumption at a roughly constant rate to offset external Impact
Consumption Ecological footprint of group expressed in ecological resources(see R)
cum, cumulative Sum of values for a variable as a function of another variable
$ current U.S. dollars inflation adjusted for a given year
Death Rate Deaths per year as a fraction of the Population
ecological footprint Measure of ecological products and services used by humanity, typically expressed as a unit of land area
ecological resource Unit of ecological footprint corresponding to an average person's annual basic needs
Efficiency, E Variable affecting the distribution of Population in a group
epoch Period of time corresponding to when part of a group is in a given Phase.
global variable A variable that describes a charcteristic of interest for one or more groups
Green The simulation that is the best match to historical values of global variables
group A set of people with specific Population, Consumption, and Capacity
GWP Gross World Product in U.S. dollars (2010 value unless otherwise indicated)
GWP/p Average GWP per person in U.S. dollars (2010 value unless otherwise indicated)
Happiness, H Life satisfaction of members of a group (on a scale from 0 to 1, typically expressed in %)
Impact, self-sustained impact Change in ecological resources (typically a reduction) continually caused by a non-human source
Life Expectancy, L Expected lifetime (in years) of a person or group born in a given year
Max Phase The maximum phase in a group
Min Phase The minimum phase in a group
mixed group A group resulting from interaction of groups based on maximum Weights of Population, C, and Capacity
Needs Maximum ecological resources consumed for basic survival
Normalized Expressed as a fraction of a given value (such as the maximum expected value or value in a given year)
Normalized Population / Nature Sratio / 1.126; also: Sr
P Cumulative population as a function of a variable such as phase (P = E^Phratio - E).
Phase Activity type; each phase is expressed as a fraction of its Sr range
Phase Ratio, Phratio Phratio = (Max Phase - Phase) / (Max Phase - Min Phase)
Pmax Maximum world population as a function of  Sratio
Population The number of people in a group
R Total amount of ecological resources consumed by a group (P * C)
Rdiff Amount of total Wants consumed by a given group
region An arbitrary collection of resources and people (also group)
resource Ecological resource
Rs Amount of ecological resources remaining in a region or the world, usable by people and other species
Rtotal Capacity
$Convert Global inflation of U.S. dollars, as multiple of a value in 2010
simulation Set of mathematical projections of observable variables (typically global variables) that define a universe
Sr Normalized Population / Nature
Sratio Ratio of minimum Consumption by people (Needs) to remaining resources (P / Rs)
state The combined characteristics of an entity (such a group) based on the values of a set of global variables
summed group A group with the sums of interacting groups' Population, Consumption, and Capacity
$T Trillion U.S. dollars
total consumption The Consumption of everyone in a group
universe, world Theoretical reality defined by a simulation, based on history in the real world
variable A mathematical quantity whose value is based on the values of other quantities
Wants Resources consumed for purposes other than needs (R - Needs)
Waste Consumption in excess of half the total resources in the world (R - Rtotal / 2)
Wealth Wealth in U.S. dollars (2010 value unless otherwise indicated)
Wealth/p Average wealth per person in U.S. dollars (2010 value unless otherwise indicated)
Weight Multiplier of a variable used to calculate the value of another variable
weighted group A group resulting from groups interacting based on Weights of Population, Consumption, and Capacity
world group All the people and regions in the world identified as one group
Year Middle of given calendar year (A.C.E.)
The following summary shows the distribution of variables across the world's population for the year 2019, and a time series of values for simulation Green (the best fit to historical data).
Green 2019

See also:

  • Simulated News blog (a fictional treatment of the model that includes "Reality Check" discussions of the underlying research)
  • Idea Explorer blog (8/22/2019 and later)
© Copyright 2019 Bradley Jarvis. All rights reserved.