Phases (Timelines Version 5)

NOTE: Terms in italics are defined in Timelines Version 5.

The following graphs project how the world poplulation is distributed across phases over time for simulation Green. Each pair of lines surrounds 10% of the population. Minimum phase is in blue, maximum phase is in red, and the phase of mid-population (50%) is in green.


Corresponding epochs are listed in the following table. An epoch starts when people start experiencing the associated phase (Max Phase is at the beginning of that phase), and it ends when people stop experiencing the associated phase (Min Phase is at the beginning of the next phase). In typical usage of the term, the current epoch is the most recent epoch.

Phase Epoch Interval
1 Colonization Prehistory to 2025 (A.D.)
2 Development 297 - 2026
3 Adaptation 1842-2026
4 Climax 1949-2028
5 Exploitation 1971-2029
6 Decline 2001-2029
7 Termination 2014-2031
8 Extinction 2024-2031

The following graph shows how global variables are distributed over phases as people start to die in 2024 just after peak population.

Variables(Phase) 2024
The following graph shows how wealth per person (in fixed dollars) is projected to vary over time as an average for each phase. The plotted values are normalized to the peak value of $17.26 million (2010 dollars) for phase 1 in 2024
The following graph shows how cumulative wealth changes across all phases is projected to change from 2020-2030. Note that wealth grows from high phase to low phase. Population, consumption, and capacity are shown for reference. Roll over the image for an alternative projection where consumption is reduced exponentially to offset the reduction in capacity due to external impacts.

See also:

© Copyright 2019 Bradley Jarvis. All rights reserved.