Timelines Model (V4)

The following graph shows the relationships between global variables tracked in the Timelines model. Roll over to see the definitions as a function of phase.

Definitions of variables and terms used here and elsewhere are as follows:

adjusted impact A self-sustained impact altered by human behavior (such as enabling other species to grow)
Age Median age of a population, in years
C Average consumption per person in a group
consumption Ecological footprint of a person or group, expressed in ecological resources
ecological resource Unit of ecological footprint corresponding to an average person's annual basic needs
Fertility Surviving children born per woman
h Average happiness of a group (typically the global population)
happiness Life satisfaction
impact, self-sustained impact Change in ecological resources (typically a reduction) continually caused by a non-human source
L Average life expectancy in years
Needs Resources consumed for basic survival
Normalized Population / Nature Sratio normalized to maximum 1.126; also: Sr
P World population
Phase Development level; each phase is expressed as a fraction of its Sr range
Pmax Maximum world population as a function of  Sratio
population The number of people in a group, typically all the people in the world (global population)
R Number of ecological resources consumed by a population
region An arbitrary collection of resources and people
Rs Amount of ecological resources remaining in the world, usable by people and other species
Rtotal Total ecological resources in a region or (typically) the world
simulation Set of mathematical projections of observable variables that define a universe
Sr Normalized Population / Nature
Sratio Ratio of min. consumption by people (needs) to remaining resources (P / Rs)
$Convert Global inflation of U.S. dollars, as multiple of a value in 2010
Tlevel Trophic level (members of standard other species per person)
total consumption The consumption of everyone in the world
universe, world Theoretical reality defined by a simulation, based on history in the real world
Wants Resources consumed for purposes other than needs
Waste Resources not consumable by people or other species
Wealth Wealth in U.S. dollars (2010 value unless otherwise indicated)
Wealth/p Average wealth per person in U.S. dollars (2010 value unless otherwise indicated)
Year Middle of given calendar year (A.C.E.)

Black dotted lines indicate where "stages" of development are crossed in what can historically be considered as humanity's lifecycle.

The distributions of global variables are simulated using 300 regions defined by randomly selected values in projected ranges of  Sr and region Rtotal. One such simulation, "Green," is shown below the year 2019. Roll over the image to see how the variable change by phase.

The ranges are chosen so the totality of the regions is within 5% (typically < 1%) of a projected world total.

Projected world totals for Sr are shown below for simulation Green, which includes values derived for history until 2014. Roll over the image for phase.

Projected world totals for Rtotal are based on estimates of self-sustained impacts shown below. Roll over the image for functions used to adjust for the impacts.
Wealth and Gross World Product vary with the product of population and total consumption as follows. Roll over the image to see a graph of inflation.
Projections of global variables for simulation Green are shown below. Roll over the image for a close-up.

See also:

  • Simulated News blog (a fictional treatment of the model that includes "Reality Check" discussions of the underlying research)
© Copyright 2019 Bradley Jarvis. All rights reserved.