Assuming that violent crime is perpetrated by the part of a population whose stress is greater than one standard deviation away from the average, the following graph shows the relationship between the violent crime rate (with an average lifespan of 77 years) and lifetime average stress, adjusted power, murder crime rate, and total distance traveled:

With these relationships, we can see how average stress, adjusted power, and distance have varied over history:

 

One of the predictions of this model is that the violent crime rate will have a minimum and a maximum. Review of Colorado crime rates shows that the crime rate can be lower than the minimum, disproving the model. However, the strong correlation of murder rate with stress indicates that perhaps the violent crime rate is proportional to stress. This is the basis of the next model.

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For more discussion, see the related blog entries starting with "Security."

For detailed calculations, see the Security spreadsheet.