Following are the results of a curve fit of world population and consumption (resources consumed per year):
Consumption = A*(r2/r1)^F*t^[B*EXP(C*t^D+E*t^(D-1))]
Population = G*Consumption^.5
Transaction Speed = H * Consumption
"r2" is the previous year's resources
"r1" is the resources two years earlier
"t" is the year
The rest are constants.
"No Change" is projected from historical data, with no change in behavior
"No Growth" is projected with consumption fixed at the 2012 level, beginning in 2012.
"Cap Growth" is projected with an increase in renewable or reusable resources (capacity ) and total consumption is fixed at the 2012 level, beginning in 2012. Capacity/Consumption Growth Rate is the decrease in non-renewable consumption per year as a fraction of non-renewable consumption.
"High Growth" is projected with the minimum resource growth rate starting in 2012 to avoid a population crash, with a maximum speed of the speed of light.
Following are graphs of the results:
The Capacity/Consumption Growth Rate is applied to the non-renewable amount of consumption as shown in Cap Growth (2012) below. For comparison, Capacity/Consumption is shown for the case where the change would begin in 2010 and avoid a population crash.
If all of the capacity added after 2012 is from the biosphere up to the amount of mass that Nature can replenish, and any additional capacity is from reusable resources, then the following fractions of consumption will apply:
Click HERE to download detailed calculations (Excel workbook in 28 MB zip file)
Click HERE to see a comparison with recent data and another projection.
© Copyright 2010-2011 Bradley Jarvis. All rights reserved.
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