Modeling the past to save the future.

Click HERE for desktop version. Last update: 1/23/2019.

ABOVE: Projected values of variables are based on Timeline 2, the best match of the Timelines model to historical data.

About This Site:

Big Pic Explorer is a repository for the writing and research of Bradley Jarvis concerning the future of humanity. Much of it includes attempts to identify and simply model basic global variables underlying history with the goal of determining what would be required to extend our survival for as long and possible.

The site list provides useful links to current and archive pages.

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Research Overview and Status:

Timelines is the latest and most robust of six models developed over more than a decade. Its basic development and testing was completed in May 2018. The model includes projections over time for population, consumption (ecological footprint), life expectancy, happiness, age distribution, and economy (Gross World Product, wealth) as totals for the global population and as distributions within the population. Development and testing is continuing through application to historical and current events.

The most current projections of future events give an estimated 82% probability that the global population will peak in 2020 and drop to zero by 2038. The alternative "Fix Timeline" which would have effectively kept population and consumption constant, is no longer considered viable (see the blog post Future Cases). 

Commentary: "Happiness Crisis"

See also: News Archive and Commentary Archive

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© Copyright 2018-2019 Bradley Jarvis. All rights reserved.