Timelines (V2)

Version 2 of the Timelines model is a means of reconstructing values of global variables in history and projecting them into the future as "timelines." 

Following is some of the model's output, highlighting the historical data (dots) and the timeline with the closest match to the data (solid line) along with some of that timeline's significant events. For consistency, this simulation will be referred to as Timeline 2 or TL-2. A potential split in 2018 that does not result in near-term extinction will be referred to as the Fix timeline.

 
 
Intervals
1859: Economic inversion (GWP becomes waste-dependent).
1914: Waste exceeds needs.
1959: Happiness over population peaks.
1980: Happiness peak falling to lowest half of population.
1992: Happiness at highest consumption climbs above peak at lower consumption.
2003: Happiness over population peaks again.
2004: Life expectancy over population peaks.
2014: Happiness drops to zero at high consumption.
2016: Life expectancy drops to zero at high consumption.

2018: Fix may start.

2020: Peak population.
2021: Peak happiness.
2022: Peak life expectancy.
2025: Peak GWP.
2029: Happiness reaches zero.
2031: Life expectancy reaches zero.
2038: Population and GWP reach zero. Waste persists.
Waste/Needs
The following graph shows the number of happy environments (happiness times population) as a function of current GWP from 1900 to 2040. Markers starting in 1970 are 10 years apart.
 

See also:

 
© Copyright 2018 Bradley Jarvis. All rights reserved.