Commentary

5/15/2018: Fixing the Future

The most recent incarnation of the Population-Consumption model has been used to calculate a potential way of delaying our extinction, to the extent that it is at our own hand (natural processes such as self-reinforcing climate feedbacks not included). This "Fix timeline" quantifies an alteration of humanity's consumption trajectory to avoid decreasing world population (P), life expectancy (L), and the economy (GWP). Because we are now likely only two years away from peak population, and because it would result in cutting off a huge amount of potential economic gain, it is, frankly, the ultimate pipe dream.

Options

If we were to live in that pipe dream, we would would see little change from the way we live now, except that our goals would be radically changed. There would be no more growth imperative, because it would be widely recognized that growth equals death, like climbers facing the onset of a dangerous storm moving in from the top of the mountain they're trying to scale. In that analogy, the climbers have also slashed and burned most of the land below them, so there's not much to retreat to.

There is a big difference between the Fix timeline and an ideal world. A fix won't make life better, it will - at best - keep it from getting worse. We are, however, at a point now where both may be equally improbable.


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