Bigpicexplorer.com: Modeling the past to save the future.

Click HERE for desktop version. Last update: 7/11/2018.

Consumption

ABOVE: Components of global consumption (ecological footprint) for simulated timelines TL-2 and TL-Fix as referenced in the blog post Values Realized.

About This Site:

Big Pic Explorer is a repository for the writing and research of Bradley Jarvis concerning the future of humanity. Much of it includes attempts to identify and simply model basic global variables underlying history with the goal of determining what would be required to extend our survival for as long and possible.

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Research Overview and Status:

Timelines is the latest and most robust of six models developed over more than a decade. Its basic development and testing was completed in May 2018. The model includes projections over time for population, consumption (ecological footprint), life expectancy, happiness, age distribution, and economy (Gross World Product, wealth) as totals for the global population and as distributions within the population. Development and testing is continuing through application to historical and current events.

The most current projections of future events give an estimated 82% probability that the global population will peak in 2020 and drop to zero by 2038. Alternatives to this outcome are being explored, such as the "Fix Timeline" that diverges from the projection in 2018 and barely avoids the population peak. 

Commentary: "Delayed Gratification"

See also: News Archive and Commentary Archive

Updates and Latest Blog Posts:

Image of Note:

Global variables over time show the success of humans in two timelines (Timeline 2 and the Fix timeline) at maximizing what they value: people (population P), longevity (life expectancy L), and happiness (H). This success comes at the expense of Nature (available ecological resources). The product of P, L, and H as fractions of their maximum amounts (PLH) is representative of total success.

PLHN

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